A revista norte-americana, Slate (on line), traz um levantamento do número de delgados acumulados por Obama e Hillary e pensa que, mesmo ficando duro para Hillary Clinton obter a maioria dos delegados e ganhar a nomeação, ainda poderá impor sua candidatura pelo jogo entre os super-delegados. Na política, as recentes vitórias da senadora, permitem recuperar terreno entre os delegados diretamente designados pelas estruturas e também influenciar nas votações que ainda faltam, antes da convenção dos Democratas. Acontece que neste último item Hillary precisaria vencer por amplíssima margem em Pennsylvania e conseguir que sejam reconhecidos os resultados de Florida e Michigan (que em principio não serão contabilizados).
Slate’s Delegate Calculator It only gets harder for Clinton going forward.
The dust hasn’t quite settled from last night’s festivities, but Clinton almost certainly finished the night better than she started it. She picked up about a dozen delegates in Ohio, according to NBC News and, as of now, is ahead in Texas’ delegate assignments. More nuanced delegate estimates and caucus returns are still trickling in throughout the day, so Obama could still trump her in Texas, despite losing to her in the primary.
We’ve updated our calculator to take last night’s results into account, and the news isn’t good for Clinton. To catch Barack Obama in pledged delegates, she now needs an average margin of victory of 23 points, according to our delegate calculator. That’s more than twice the size of her win in Ohio. If she falls short of this in Pennsylvania, she’s especially out of luck.
But as we’ve said before, this isn’t all about pledged delegates. Last night’s wins were most important because it improved her standing among superdelegates. Clinton can now prove she’s a viable threat, which could help her overcome the pledged-delegate deficit she’s almost sure to find herself in.
One important methodological note: We’ve approximated the Texas delegates based on the primary’s results. By no means is this a final count, and we’ll update once we know more information about the primary and the caucus. Assume it has a margin of error of 10 delegates for both candidates’ tallies.
Click the launch module at left to use Slate‘s delegate calculator.
The current number of pledged delegates comes from NBC News’ tally.
We estimate the number of delegates based on the overall state vote, even though delegates are awarded by congressional district as well. We felt comfortable making this approximation because in the primaries through Super Tuesday there was only a 1.6 percent deviation between the percentage of the overall vote and the percentage of delegates awarded in primaries. The proportion of delegates awarded by congressional district, therefore, does not differ greatly from the statewide breakdown.
The calculator does not include Michigan’s and Florida’s delegations because the DNC stripped the states of their delegates for moving their primaries earlier in the electoral calendar. It is possible that these states’ delegations will be seated at the convention but unlikely if it’s a close contest.
The calculator does not incorporate superdelegates into its calculations. Superdelegates are unpledged and uncommitted and therefore can change their endorsements and convention votes at any time. As a result, we’ve simply noted at the bottom of the calculator how many superdelegates the leading candidate needs to win the nomination in a given scenario.
All of the calculator’s formulas and data come from Jason Furman, the director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution.